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CSUN Political Scientist Looks Ahead at the Presidential Race

(NORTHRIDGE, Calif., July 17, 2007) — The United States’ presidential election is more than a year away, but news about the race already permeates the airwaves and slips into everyday conversations.

Cal State Northridge political science professor James Mitchell says the 2008 presidential race is already shaping up to be one of the most interesting in years; with 17, possibly 18, candidates, a myriad of issues—from the war in Iraq to health care and the growing gap between the haves and have-nots—and intense scrutiny from traditional media and the Internet all contributing to a sense that this election could make a difference in people’s lives.

"What happens in the 2008 election will have impact on where this country is headed for the next four years, whether it’s the direction of the war in Iraq or on such social issues as health care, reproductive rights, gay rights and immigration," Mitchell said. He pointed out that not only is the White House up for grabs in next year’s elections, but so are the seats in the House of Representatives and several in the U.S. Senate.

Mitchell said people should remember that the last presidential election had an impact on the U.S. Supreme Court, with President George Bush making two appointments that shifted the balance of power to the court’s conservative wing.

"Depending on who gets elected, the court’s political bent could shift to the right even more, giving the conservatives a 6-3 majority and that is obviously a pivotal issue," he said.

The election’s results also would have impact on state and local issues, such as funding for higher education. Mitchell said Republicans tend to support privatization and limited government, and therefore support less public funding for higher education than Democrats. He said he doesn’t mean to imply a decline in education performance under Republican leadership, but one that shifts the burden for its delivery to the private sector.

But, Mitchell said, he thinks the American public gets it.

"The image of folks counting ballots in Florida in 2000 is indelible," he said. "For the want of a few hanging chads, and a different decision in Bush v. Gore (by the U.S. Supreme Court in 2000) and the absence of allege vote count irregularities at polling places in Ohio and Pennsylvania in 2004, the world might be very different today. I might be naïve, but I don’t think that is lost on the electorate.

"The mid-term elections of November 2006 show just how much of a difference an election can make," he said. "Now there is at least the appearance of a genuine separation of powers, checks and balances between the legislative and executive branches, hearings, subpoenas and demands for accountability that have been non-existent the past six years. The question is; what happens after that?"

Reasonable people can disagree on the implications of these developments, Mitchell said. "Some might argue that the divided government, or cohabitation in the French example, might result in legislative gridlock. Others would suggest a greater diversity of viewpoints will appear."

Right now, Mitchell said, the main focus for the various presidential campaigns is not to self-destruct before the primaries.

"It almost seems like, especially in these early stages, the candidates in both parties are ‘playing not to lose’ rather than ‘playing to win,’ which is a prudent course," he said. "The real push should probably come in ’08. It seems that now the strategy should be to make it through the year without appearing in a madam’s phonebook or having one’s kids being ‘perp-walked’ out of some county lock-up."

Adding to this mix is the user-generated content of the Internet.

On the one hand, Mitchell said, campaign and candidates sites on such venues as MySpace and YouTube provide ways for usually staid and reserved politicians to appear hip and approachable, i.e. New York Senator Hilary Clinton’s theme song contest and the "Sopranos" vignette with her husband, former President Bill Clinton.

"However, images play in heavy rotation on the Internet and can be manipulated in ways that no amount of expensive campaign ads can mitigate," he said.

An unknown hanging over the presidential race right now is former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson, star of the television series "Law & Order," and the possibility that he may be throwing his hat in the contest for the Republican nomination.

"Fred Thompson’s strategy seems to be to remain on the sidelines as long as possible so as to ‘keep his powder dry,’" Mitchell said. "He’s straight from central casting. He’s John Wayne. He invokes memories of Ronald Reagan. It’s almost better if he doesn’t open his mouth so voters can paint him anyway they want.

"It’s almost as if Sen. Thompson is relying upon the Arthur Branch character he plays so well in ‘Law & Order’ to campaign for him. The New York County District Attorney that he so ably plays projects an image of gravitas that no amount of spin meisters could hope to duplicate."

Mitchell said there are some "rock stars" in the race so far, including Democrats Clinton and Illinois Sen. Barack Obama.

"But Thompson could change the whole dynamic," he said. "It’s all a matter of spin, and who’s got the better spin."