Approximately 23,200 unemployment insurance claims were filed this February in the San Fernando Valley. The last time unemployment figures were that high in the Valley was in June 1994, when the area was still reeling from the devastating impact of the Northridge earthquake.

"The good news is that the unemployment claim growth in the Valley is moderate relative to the county and the state," said Daniel Blake, director of CSUN's San Fernando Valley Economic Research Center. "This means that we aren¹t adding too much to the unemployment toll in the Valley during this slow season, and the Valley's economy does not seem to be as sluggish as those of the county or state."

While Valley unemployment claims have generally been growing since the tragedies of Sept. 11, the growth has been more moderate than either in Los Angeles County or California as a whole. October to February monthly unemployment growth in the Valley has averaged 2.6 percent per month compared to 3.5 percent average growth for Los Angeles County and 7.9 percent average growth for the state.

Blake said the unemployment figures during January and February of this year were in line with past seasonal patterns. He said that monthly unemployment insurance claims typically rise in the first half of the year - with increases in the 2 to 4 percent range - and fall in the second half.

"February's 4.1 percent increase in the Valley is in the high end of that range," Blake said. "The reason we hit an eight-year high is that unemployment claims have been driven up by the recession, and we are adding the usual seasonal increase to that."

Blake noted that unemployment claims for Los Angeles County and the state are also at eight-year highs owing to the recession. But he cautioned that the forecasted economic recovery may not push down unemployment figures immediately because drops in employment growth tend to lag behind economic growth in the periods immediately following a recession.

"Because of the strong seasonal pattern, we will probably have to wait until the second half of the year to see Valley unemployment claims actually diminish," Blake said. "But the Valley's current more moderate unemployment insurance claim growth suggests that the Valley's economy may be recovering more quickly that those of the county or the state."

Blake said that the impact on the Valley from the Sept. 11th terrorist attacks seems to be confined to October and November, when unemployment claims reversed their normal decreases in the fall and instead rose significantly. Valley claims then dropped in December and seem to have reverted to their normal seasonal patterns, with modest increases in the first two months of 2002, he said.

The San Fernando Valley Economic Research Center, located in CSUN's College of Business Administration and Economics, aims to support the Valley's economy by collecting, analyzing and reporting on economic, social and demographic data.