ࡱ> MOLe Wbjbj΀ .&!% b b 5#5#5#I#I#I#8#T# I#T$pQ%"s%s%s%kkkǾɾɾɾɾɾɾ.DɾE5#kTikkkɾs%s%CrrrkXs%5#s%ǾrkǾrrF8s%P`k39I#k˸T$0Thmh5#kkrkkkkkɾɾJqkkkTkkkkkkkkkkkkkb k:  CALIFORNIA STATE UNIOVERSITY, NORTHRIDGE College of Business and Economics Department of Systems and Operations Management SOM666 - Project Planning and Policy Summer 2010 Dr. Ardavan Asef-Vaziri Final Exam August, 11, 2010 Time: 100 Minutes Name: (please print) There are 10 questions and 15 sub-problems each weighing 4 points. This is a closed-book, closed-notes exam. A 4 by 6 guide sheet is allowed. Sharing materials with other students is not allowed. You may use a simple calculator. No laptops nor PDAs are allowed. Please sign here to indicate that you have adhered to university policies regarding ethical behavior in preparing for and completing this exam.  Good Luck Please write clearly. Thanks Q1. What are the four most important characteristics of a project manager as discussed in class. Systems analysis Link performance of the subsystems to the performance of the total system Trade-off Win-win situations Q2. Clearly explain the two types of matrix organization: (a) Strong (or hard): Strong: Specific person/persons or a person fraction from functional areas are assigned to the project. Mr. Smith (b) Weak (or soft): Instead of a specific person, a specific skill or capacity is assigned. Sr. software Eng. Q3. Contrast Gantt charts and precedence diagrams to Design Matrix Structure. The primary function of Gantt charts and precedence diagrams is to coordinate the execution of tasks and activities in well structured projects. The Design Structure Matrix considers the importance of the flow of information. Q4. Would you expect a task in a manufacturing plant that uses lots of complex equipment to have a learning curve coefficient closer to 70 percent, or to 95 percent? Explain clearly. If we assume by complex we mean automated, then the plant would have a slower learning rate of perhaps 95 percent. On the other hand, if by complex it is assumed that workers need a great deal of skill to operate the equipment, then a faster learning rate of 70 percent would be expected. Q5. As indicated in our slides, a structured approach to help identify, prioritize, and manage risk covers 3 attributes. However, in our class discussion we also added one other attribute. What are these attributes? The probability of each failure occurring Severity of each failure occurring Ability to detect each failure Ability to have corrective action Q6. Clearly describe the two main reasons of using Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD). To compare two or more forecasting techniques Std Dev of forecast is 1.25 MAD Q7. Clearly describe the two main reasons of using Tracking Signal. Explain the two main benefits To see if random variations are between UCL and LCL To see if there are systematic Errors Q8. In bottom up budgeting, the coefficient of variation is higher at higher levels of the WBS. Is this true or false? Explain clearly. False Suppose a task at level 3 is composed of two tasks at level 4. Suppose budget of each tasks at level 4 has mean of 100 and StdDev of 20. The aggregate task at level 3 has mean of 100+100 = 200 and a variance of 400+400 = 800 ( StdDev = 28.28 28.28/200 < 20/100 Q9. The most four set of important information shown in Wheelwright and Clark (1992) project positioning graph are: If the Mix of Projects is reasonable. If the project mix is aligned with the corporate strategy If the sizes of projects are reasonable If the organization has enough key resources Q10. Which of the following is NOT a characteristic of effective project team members? a) They are technically competent b) They are politically sensitive c) They have a strong orientation to their discipline d) They have a strong goal orientation e) They have high self-esteem P1. Present values of the investment of a project (cash outflow) that has normal distribution with a mean of 100 and standard deviation of 20. Present values of the cash inflow due to operations of the project that has a mean of 200 and standard deviation of 50. a) Compute the mean and standard deviation of NPV of the project. Mean (NPV) = 200-100 = 100 Var (NPV) = 202 + 502 = 2900 SD (NPV) = SQRT(2900) = 58.9 b) Compute probability of having a negative NPV. Z= (0-100)/58.9 = -1.86 They look for less than 1.86 which is 96.86 That is the same as greater than -1.86 is also 96.86 But less than that is 3.14 P2. A project has three sequential tasks. a) The first task follows Uniform distribution with parameters 50 and 100 days. Using rand() = 0.65, generate a random instance of the duration of the first task. a) X = 50+50*.65 = 82.5 b) The second task follows Normal distribution with a mean of 100 and standard deviation of 15 days. Using rand() = 0.56, generate a random instance of the duration of the second task. X = 100+15Z Probability 0.56, we can read the z value from the table Z = 0.15 X= 102.25 c) The third task follows Triangular distribution with duration parameters of: optimistic 3 days, most likely 5 days, and pessimistic 9 days. Using rand() = 0.7 generate a random instance of the duration of the third task.  EMBED Equation.3  Rand()=0.7 >= 1/3 ( right side  EMBED Equation.3   EMBED Equation.3  = 9-2.68 = 6.32 P3. Consider the following project. The numbers are the durations of the activities.  SHAPE \* MERGEFORMAT    SHAPE \* MERGEFORMAT  ActivityABCDEFGHIEarliest Start0448810151519Latest Start05481210161519 a) Fill the latest start row in the above table. b) Suppose extra budget is allocated to this project. With this extra money you can either reduce the duration of activity H or activity G by 2 days (either 2 days, or nothing). Which activity do you crash?? Why? Crash H because it is on the critical path. c) Given your decision in the above question (crash either H or G by two days), what is the new duration of the project? 20 Days d) Now forget crashing the activities (ignore questions c and d), suppose the variance of the activities are as follows: ActivityABCDEFGHIvariance343224222 For what due date is there at least 96% probability to complete the critical path? In your final answer, ignore the second digit after the decimal point. z= 1.75  EMBED Equation.3  ( 7=D-21 ( D= 28 P4. Given the following network, the probability of completing the critical path in 19 days or less is 75%. The probability of completing the project in 19 days or less is 66%.  ActivityTimeMeanStandard DeviationA42B12C10D31 a) Compute the standard deviation of activity B. In your final answer, ignore the second digit after the decimal point. (19-16)/CP = Z0.75 = 0.67 ( CP = 3/0.67 = 4.478 22 + x2 = 4.4782 ( 4 + x2 = 20 ( x2 = 16 ( x = 4 b) Compute the standard deviation of activity C. In your final answer, ignore the second digit after the decimal point. P(project) = P(path1) *P(Path2) = 0.66 = .75*P(path2) ( P(path2) = 0.88 (19-13)/path2 = Z0.88 = 1.17 ( CP = 6/1.17 = 5.13 12 + x2 = 5.162 ( 1 + x2 = 26.32 ( x2 = 25.32 ( x = 5 P5. Suppose that you had a project that was targeted to finish in 12 months, at a cost of $600K. Earned Value statistics at the end of month 3 is given below MonthBCWSACWPBCWP3100K120K75KGiven the procedures discussed in class regarding optimistic and pessimistic estimates. Suppose the progress rate of the remainder of the project will be the same as the past performance (a pessimistic view) . How long does it take to complete the project? SPI = 75/100 = 0.75 Time at completion = 12/0.75 = 16 months Suppose the cost rate of the remainder of the project, with exception of current budget overrun, will stay as scheduled (an optimistic view). What would be the total cost of the project? 600-75+120 = 645 P6. We have one unit of each of the three resources of Resource A, Resource B, and Resource C. The contract of the following project indicates that the duration of the project is 21 weeks. TaskPrecedenceDurationResourceTask1-5 weeksResource ATask2-7 weeksResource BTask3Task18 weeksResource BTask4Task24 weeksResource ATask5Task3 and Task43 weeksResource C a) Compute the project buffer. b) Compute and identify the feeding buffer(s).  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