Department Name

SAN FERNANDO VALLEY HOUSING REPORT FOR DECEMBER 2011
San Fernando Valley Economic Research Center
CALIFORNIA STATE UNIVERSITY, NORTHRIDGE
William W. Roberts, Ph. D., Director 818-677-7021

Once again, the number of Valley home sales is down from the prior year’s level.  December 2011 Valley home sales were DOWN 5.5 percent from a year ago.  While we are seeing small, positive signs in increased retail sales and declines in unemployment, it will take more time for the recovery to impact our housing market.  Valley home sales are down in all areas with the exception of a slight increase in the West Foothills.  The largest year-over-year declines were in the higher priced areas of Burbank & Glendale (-10.5 percent) and the South Foothills (-10.0 percent).  Home sales look to be sluggish well into 2012.

December 2011                    November 2011                    December 2010       
SFV Home Sales                                  1373                                    1238                                    1453
12 month Change                                 -5.5%

The Valley’s December 2011 median price of a single-family, detached home was $355,000.  This is DOWN 12.3 percent from the median price of $405,000 in December 2010.  Median prices are down over the past year in all Valley areas.  Valley median home prices peaked at $660,000 in May 2007.  Since then, the lowest median price level we observed was $347,500 in March 2009.  Following the low in March 2009, median home prices inched up to a high of $405,000 in December 2010.  Since then we have observed a gradual decline.  The net result is that we have virtually no change in median home prices since mid-2009.

                                                    December 2011                    November 2011                    December 2010         
SFV Median Price                              $355,000                              $369,500                             $405,000
12 month Change                                - 12.3%

Notices of Default (NODs) in December 2011, at 648, are DOWN 32.8 percent from December 2010.  NODs peaked in March 2009 at 2539.  This is the lowest level we have observed since early 2007, with the exception of a brief decline in September through November 2008 when notification rules changed.

                                                    December 2011                    November 2011                    December 2010       
SFV NODs                                            648                                      937                                     965
12 month Change                               - 32.8%

December 2011 saw 382 foreclosures. This is up 4.1 percent from the December 2010 level of 367.  Foreclosures hit 922 in August 2008 and 919 in June 2009.   With our slow economic recovery, we expect to see foreclosures in the 300-400 range over the next six to nine months.  Foreclosures continue to remain highest in the lower priced housing areas.

                                                    December 2011                    November 2011                    December 2010
SFV Foreclosures                                 382                                      353                                       367
12 month Change                                 4.1%

LA County Foreclosures                      1,865                                     1,714                                  1,724        
12 month change                                 8.2%