SAN FERNANDO VALLEY HOUSING REPORT FOR DECEMBER 2008
San Fernando Valley Economic Research Center
CALIFORNIA STATE UNIVERSITY, NORTHRIDGE
Dr. William W. Roberts, Director 818-677-7021
San Fernando Valley year-over-year home sales increased in December—up 54.5% from December 2007, a substantial gain. December’s increase in year-over-year sales makes this the fourth month of an encouraging pattern of increasing sales relative to last year. The rise in home sales likely results from the drop in home prices. The near-term home sales outlook may be bolstered by the recent drop in mortgage rates but may be dampened by recent and continuing near-term job losses.
December 2008 November 2008 December 2007
SFV Home Sales 1,242 1,075 802
12 month change +54.5%
The Valley’s median price of a single-family, detached home dropped dramatically in December, falling 7.5% from November 2008. December’s $375,000 median price is 35.4% below December 2007. This recent drop breaks the leveling off in median prices over the past two months. December median home prices are down 40% from the December 2006 level of $625,000, and 43.2% from their May 2007 peak of $660,000. The last time the Valley saw the current $375,000 median price was in June 2004.
December 2008 November 2008 December 2007
SFV Median Price $375,000 $410,000 $580,000
12 month change -35.4%
Notices of Default (NODs) surged in December, up 122% over November 2008. Lenders appear to have adjusted to the recent requirement that homeowners be given a 30-day notice before filing a Notice of Default. NODs averaged slightly over 600 per month for the prior three months. NODs are now back above 1,500 per month range of the summer months and are up 53.1% over December 2007.
December 2008 November 2008 December 2007
SFV NODs 1,644 739 1074
12 month change +53.1%
December foreclosures, at 465, are up 12.0% from last December’s 415 and are up slightly from November’s 443 foreclosures. Foreclosures remain down from the 850 per month foreclosure average of June through September. However, with the recent rise in NODs, we may see a rise in the foreclosure rate. Much will depend upon policies out of Washington.
December 2008 November 2008 December 2007
SFV Foreclosures 465 443 415
12 month change +12.0%
LA County Foreclosures 2,138 2,135 1,787
12 month change +19.6%