SAN FERNANDO VALLEY HOUSING REPORT FOR NOVEMBER 2011
San Fernando Valley Economic Research Center
CALIFORNIA STATE UNIVERSITY, NORTHRIDGE
William W. Roberts, Ph. D., Director 818-677-7021
SAN FERNANDO VALLEY HOUSING REPORT FOR NOVEMBER 2011
San Fernando Valley Economic Research Center
CALIFORNIA STATE UNIVERSITY, NORTHRIDGE
William W. Roberts, Ph. D., Director 818-677-7021
San Fernando Valley home sales are ending the year with a whimper. Once again, Valley home sales are down from the prior year’s level. However, the decline in sales is small. In November 2011, Valley home sales were DOWN 1.2 percent from a year ago. While we are seeing small, positive signs in increased retail sales and declines in unemployment, it will take more time for our recovery to impact our housing market. While there is little overall change in the sales level for the Valley, they are not evenly spread. Home sales changes range from an annual decline of 33 percent in the West Foothills to an increase of 29 percent in the Northwest Valley. The Central and Northeast Valley, the areas with the largest foreclosure activity, show virtually no change in the sales level. Home sales look to be sluggish well into 2012.
November 2011 October 2011 November 2010
SFV Home Sales 1190 1205 1204
12 month Change -1.2%
The Valley’s November 2011 median price of a single-family, detached home was $365,250. This is DOWN 8.7 percent from the median price of $400,000 in November 2010. Median prices are down over the past year in all Valley areas. Valley median home prices peaked at $660,000 in May 2007. Since then, the lowest median price level we observed was $347,500 in March 2009. In 2010, median prices averaged a 61. Percent increase over the prior year’s median price. Since January 2011, median home prices have declined an average of 4.7 percent from the prior year’s median price. The net result is that we have seen virtually no change in median home prices since late 2009.
November 2011 October 2011 November 2010
SFV Median Price $365,250 $355,000 $400,000
12 month Change - 8.7%
Notices of Default (NODs) in November 2011, at 937, are DOWN 5.8 percent from November 2010. NODs peaked in March 2009 at 2539. NODs continue to remain highest in Olive View, Reseda and Pacoima. NODs have declined for the past three months.
November 2011 October 2011 November 2010
SFV NODs 937 1111 995
12 month Change - 5.8%
November 2011 foreclosures were at 355. This is up 3.2 percent from the November 2010 level of 342. Foreclosures hit 922 in August 2008 and 919 in June 2009. The November 2011 amount at 353 is about the number we saw in November and December 2010. With our slow economic recovery, we expect to see foreclosures in the 300-400 range over the next six to nine months.
November 2011 October 2011 November 2010
SFV Foreclosures 353 371 342
12 month Change 3.2%
LA County Foreclosures 1,714 1802 1,720
12 month change - 0.3%