SAN FERNANDO VALLEY HOUSING REPORT FOR NOVEMBER 2008
San Fernando Valley Economic Research Center
CALIFORNIA STATE UNIVERSITY, NORTHRIDGE
Dr. Daniel Blake, Director 818-677-7021
San Fernando Valley year-over-year home sales increased in November—up 37.1% from November 2007, a very respectable gain. November’s increase in year-over-year sales adds a third month to an encouraging pattern of increasing sales relative to last year. The drop in November sales relative to October sales simply reflects the long-term seasonal pattern of home sales dropping off between October and November. The near-term home sales outlook may be bolstered by the recent drop in mortgage rates but may be dampened by expected near-term job losses.
November 2008 October 2008 November 2007
SFV Home Sales 1,075 1,461 784
12 month change +37.1%
The Valley’s median price of a single-family, detached home temporarily halted its downward course by rising $5,000 in October and another $5,000 in November. Still, November’s $410,000 median price is 29.3% below November 2007. This “breather” in the price slide does not mean that housing prices have bottomed out, but it does mean that the downward pressure on home prices is easing somewhat, possibly due to increasing affordability and more favorable mortgage rates. The bottom of the market could be several thousands if not tens of thousands below the current median price, and may not appear until early to mid 2009.
November 2008 October 2008 November 2007
SFV Median Price $410,000 $405,000 $580,000
12 month change -29.3%
Notices of Default (NODs) continued at depressed levels in November due to a recent requirement that homeowners be given a 30-day notice before filing a Notice of Default. While November NODs rose to 739 from 655 last November (up 12.8%), and rose from the 588 NODs in October, they remain far below the 1,500 per month range of summer months. Whether NODs stay at lower but still elevated levels for the near term or rise back toward 1,500 depends on both homeowners’ and lenders’ reactions to this new grace period, on lender’s holiday period policies, and on mortgage market policies now being fashioned in Washington.
November 2008 October 2008 November 2007
SFV NODs 739 588 655
12 month change +12.8%
November foreclosures, at 443, are up 67.2% from last November’s 265 but dropped from October’s 549 foreclosures. Relative to the 850 per month foreclosure average of June through September, the current lower foreclosure rate may ease some of the downward pressure on home prices. If Notices of Default and foreclosure rates remain relatively subdued and Washington’s policies combined with lower mortgage rates encourage some more would-be home buyers, home prices may stabilize sooner rather than later and sales may continue to recover.
November 2008 October 2008 November 2007
SFV Foreclosures 443 549 265
12 month change +67.2%
LA County Foreclosures 2,135 2,459 1,089
12 month change +96.1%