SAN FERNANDO VALLEY HOUSING REPORT FOR OCTOBER 2011
San Fernando Valley Economic Research Center
CALIFORNIA STATE UNIVERSITY, NORTHRIDGE
William W. Roberts, Ph. D., Director 818-677-7021
SAN FERNANDO VALLEY HOUSING REPORT FOR OCTOBER 2011
San Fernando Valley Economic Research Center
CALIFORNIA STATE UNIVERSITY, NORTHRIDGE
William W. Roberts, Ph. D., Director 818-677-7021
San Fernando Valley home sales languish. For the last sixteen months, with the exception of an increase from July 2011 to August 2011, sales have declined from the prior year’s level. Over this sixteen month period, the average decline from the prior year’s sales was 10.3 percent. In October 2011, Valley home sales were DOWN 1.9 percent from a year ago. As is the case throughout the United States, the Valley drastically overbuilt housing in the early 2000’s. Also, over the past three years, Valley average household size increased five percent (from 2.98 in 2007 to 3.13 per household by 2009 – according to the Census Bureau). It will take time for the increased supply and reduced demand to work through the system. Sales look to be sluggish well into 2012.
October 2011 September 2011 October 2010
SFV Home Sales 1160 1237 1182
12 month Change -1.9%
The Valley’s October 2011 median price of a single-family, detached home was $355,000. This is DOWN 10.1 percent from the median price of $395,000 in October 2010. Median prices are down over the past year in all Valley areas. Valley median home prices peaked at $660,000 in May 2007. Since then, the lowest median price level we observed was $347,500 in March 2009. Since March 2009 we observed a gradual median price increase through December 2010, followed by a slight downward trend. While our economy is recovering and unemployment starting to fall, it will take time before we see our general economic recovery showing in the housing market.
October 2011 September 2011 October 2010
SFV Median Price $355,000 $370,000 $395,000
12 month Change - 10.1%
Notices of Default (NODs) in October 2011, at 1111, are UP 9.0 percent from October 2010. NODs peaked in March 2009 at 2539. Since that peak, NODs exhibited a gradual decline through July 2011. Over the past three months NODs have been at higher levels, indicating continuing difficulties in the housing market. NODs continue to remain highest in Olive View, Reseda and Pacoima.
October 2011 September 2011 October 2010
SFV NODs 1111 1132 1019
12 month Change 9.0 %
October 2011 foreclosures were at 371. This is down 14.3 percent from the October 2010 level of 433. Foreclosures hit 922 in August 2008 and 919 in June 2009. The October 2011 amount at 371 is about the number we saw in November and December 2010. With our slow economic recovery, we expect to see foreclosures in the 300-400 range over the next six to nine months.
October 2011 September 2011 October 2010
SFV Foreclosures 371 466 433
12 month Change -14.3%
LA County Foreclosures 2088 2133 2,152
12 month change -3.0%