Embargoed until Friday, November 26, 2009
SAN FERNANDO VALLEY HOUSING REPORT FOR OCTOBER 2009
San Fernando Valley Economic Research Center
CALIFORNIA STATE UNIVERSITY, NORTHRIDGE
Dr. William W. Roberts, Director 818-677-7021
San Fernando Valley year-over-year home sales continue a fourteen month sequence of increases over the prior year. The increase this month, up only 2.7 percent over sales a year ago, is minimal. New and existing home sales are up slightly, 1.1 percent, from the September 2009 level of 1493. Nationally, existing home sales are reported to be up 10.1 percent over the past month. This is generally attributed to the first-time buyer tax credit. There is little evidence of this tax credit having a significant impact on Valley home sales. Home sales continue to be robust.
October 2009 September 2009 October 2008
SFV Home Sales 1510 1493 1471
12 month Change 2.7%
The Valley’s median price of a single-family, detached home continues to remain stable. For the past six months median home prices in each of the seven broad Valley areas that we track show little evidence of any significant price movement. October 2009’s median price of $382,000 is down slightly (2.1%) from the September 2009 price of $390,000. October 2009’s median price of $382,000 is down only 5.7 percent from the October 2008 median price of $405,000.
October 2009 September 2009 October 2008
SFV Median Price $382,000 $390,000 $405,000
12 month Change -5.7%
Notices of Default (NODs) in October 2009, at 1494, are up 154.1 percent over October 2008. This significant increase over levels one year ago reflects a procedural change in NODs in September 2008.
The procedural change delayed NODs. October 2009’s NODs of 1494 is down 6.6 percent from those in September 2009. The continued high level of NODs indicates that the housing market is working through the mortgage market financial problems.
October 2009 September 2009 October 2008
SFV NODs 1,494 1600 588
12 month Change 154.1%
October foreclosures, at 561, are up 2.2 percent from the October 2008 level. While we are seeing evidence of a slow recovery, we expect this level of foreclosures to continue into early 2010. Foreclosures are down significantly from the Valley peak of 919 in June 2009. The largest foreclosure areas are Pacoima and Panorama City.
October 2009 September 2009 October 2008
SFV Foreclosures 561 586 549
12 month Change 2.2%
LA County Foreclosures 2,780 2,389 2,461
12 month change 13.0%