Department Name

SAN FERNANDO VALLEY HOUSING REPORT FOR SEPTEMBER 2012
San Fernando Valley Economic Research Center
CALIFORNIA STATE UNIVERSITY, NORTHRIDGE
William W. Roberts, Ph.D., Director 818-677-4582

San Fernando Valley year-over-year home sales were down for the first time since April 2012. In September 2012, 1,210 units were sold.  This is DOWN 7.9 percent over August 2011 sales of 1,314 units.  Valley home sales were up from last year by over 10 percent in each of the past five months.  September 2012 sales were down from the prior year’s level in all areas other than Burbank/Glendale and the West Foothills. The year-over-year declines range from 8 percent in the South Foothills to 18.9 percent in the Central Valley area.

                                                 September 2012        August 2012        September 2011   
SFV Home Sales                               1,210                      1,663                      1,314
12 month Change                              -7.9%

The Valley’s September 2012 median price of a single-family, detached home was $400,000.  This is UP 7.0 percent from the median price of $374,000 in September 2011.  Valley median home prices peaked at $660,000 in May 2007.  Since then, the lowest median price level we observed was $347,500 in March 2009.  The July, August and September 2012 median prices of $400,000, $402,500, and $400,000 are the highest median prices we have seen since $405,000 in December 2010.  The year 2010 was a year of significant stimulus spending.  Median prices appear to be on a slow, steady rise since January 2012 with a leveling the past three months.  Median home prices are up in all seven areas we track.  These increases range from 0.2 percent in the South Foothills to 20.5 percent in the Southeast Valley.

                                                   September 2012        August 2012        September 2011         
SFV Median Price                            $400,000                  $402,500                 $374,000
12 month Change                                7.0%

Notices of Default (NODs) in September 2012, at 583, are DOWN 48.5 percent from September 2011.    NODs peaked in March 2009 at 2,539 and have trended down since then.  NODs continue to remain highest in Olive View and Pacoima.  NODs have generally trended down since August 2010 and have hovered between 580 and 1,000 for the past nine months.  September NODs are the lowest we have observed since the hiatus period of September/October 2008.  Prior to the 2008 numbers, we need to go back to early 2007, prior to the housing market collapse, to observe the same level.

                                                    September 2012        August 2012        September 2011   
SFV NODs                                             583                         714                         1,132   
12 month Change                              -48.5%

September 2012 foreclosures were 274.  This is DOWN 41.2 percent from the September 2011 level of 466.  Foreclosures have been down substantially from the prior year’s level every month this year.  We are now at about 25 percent of the highest levels observed in 2008 and 2009.  The Valley housing market decline in the 1990s bottomed in early 1996.  Foreclosures continued at over 600 per quarter until the fourth quarter of 1999.  We expect foreclosures to continue between 200 and 300 per month through most of next year.  Foreclosures continue to be highest in Olive View and Pacoima.

                                                      September 2012        August 2012        September 2011
SFV Foreclosures                                    274                        235                          466
12 month Change                                 -41.2%
LA County Foreclosures                          1,244                      1,278                       2,153   
12 month change                                   -42.2%