SAN FERNANDO VALLEY HOUSING REPORT FOR SEPTEMBER 2011
San Fernando Valley Economic Research Center
CALIFORNIA STATE UNIVERSITY, NORTHRIDGE
William W. Roberts, Ph. D., Director 818-677-7021
SAN FERNANDO VALLEY HOUSING REPORT FOR SEPTEMBER 2011
San Fernando Valley Economic Research Center
CALIFORNIA STATE UNIVERSITY, NORTHRIDGE
William W. Roberts, Ph. D., Director 818-677-7021
San Fernando Valley home sales languish. For the last fifteen months, with the exception of an increase from July 2011 to August 2011, sales have declined from the prior year’s level. Over this fifteen month period, the average decline from the prior year’s sales was almost eleven percent. In September 2011, Valley home sales were DOWN 8.0 percent from a year ago. The largest sales decline from September 2010 was a 21 percent decline in the Burbank/Glendale area. With high unemployment and ongoing government budget uncertainties, the housing market will continue to remain stagnant.
September 2011 August 2011 September 2010
SFV Home Sales 1237 1419 1345
12 month Change -8.0%
The Valley’s September 2011 median price of a single-family, detached home was $370,000. This is DOWN 8.8 percent from the median price of $402,000 in September 2010. The price declines from last year’s level were uniform throughout the Valley. Valley median home prices peaked at $660,000 in May 2007. Since then, the lowest median price level we observed was $347,500 in March 2009. Since March 2009 we observed a gradual median price increase through December 2010, followed by a slight downward trend. Inflation, albeit slow, continues to take a toll on real home values. Adjusted for inflation, median home prices are now at the level we had in March 2009.
September 2011 August 2011 September 2010
SFV Median Price $370,000 $365,000 $402,000
12 month Change - 8.0%
Notices of Default (NODs) in September 2011, at 1132, are down 9.7 percent from September 2010. NODs peaked in March 2009 at 2539 and have trended down since then. NODs continue to remain highest in Olive View and Pacoima. Since December 2009 NODs have declined from the prior year’s number in all except two months (January 2011 and August 2011). NODs are becoming more evenly spread throughout the Valley.
September 2011 August 2011 September 2010
SFV NODs 1132 1383 1253
12 month Change - 9.7 %
September 2011 foreclosures were at 466. This is down 10.0 percent from the September 2010 level of 518. Foreclosures hit 922 in August 2008 and 919 in June 2009. The September 2011 amount at 466 is consistent with the average number of foreclosures we have observed over the past eighteen months. Foreclosures will be a significant fixture in the housing market into the second quarter of 2012.
September 2011 August 2011 September 2010
SFV Foreclosures 466 471 518
12 month Change -10.0%
LA County Foreclosures 2,133 2,260 2,620
12 month change -18.6%