SAN FERNANDO VALLEY HOUSING REPORT FOR SEPTEMBER 2008
San Fernando Valley Economic Research Center
CALIFORNIA STATE UNIVERSITY, NORTHRIDGE
Dr. Daniel Blake, Director 818-677-7021
San Fernando Valley year-over-year home sales grew sharply in September—up 66.4% from September 2007. The sharp rise in year-over-year sales in this month reflects the dramatic impact of falling home prices and the mortgage market meltdown on home sales in September 2007 when sales fell to 760 from 1250 in August. In contrast, this year’s September home sales rose 6.6% from August defying the usual 10% seasonal drop in monthly sales in September and continuing the general 2008 trend of increasing monthly sales. The recovery of home sales has been steady but not huge, and the current uncertainty in the credit (mortgage) markets and California’s slow job market are likely to continue to check growth in near-term home sales.
September 2008 August 2008 September 2007
SFV Home Sales 1,265 1,187 760
12 month change +66.4%
The Valley’s median price of a single-family, detached home continued its downward course in September, falling to $400,000. Slow sales and rising foreclosures continue to put downward pressure on housing prices—September’s median price fell 35.5% from September 2007 when the Valley’s median price was $620,000. Valley median housing prices peaked in May 2007 at $660,000 for a single family detached home. The brighter side of this continued price slide is that it opens doors to more potential home buyers every month by bringing home prices more in line with household income in terms of affordability.
September 2008 August 2008 September 2007
SFV Median Price $400,000 $421,000 $620,000
12 month change -35.5%
Notices of Default (NODs) dropped dramatically in September due to a new requirement that homeowners be given a 30-day notice before filing a Notice of Default. September NODs dropped to 524 from 833 last September (down 40.0%) and from 1,518 in August (down 65.5% in one month) due to the new regulation. Whether NODs move back to the 1,500 range of recent months or stay at lower levels for the near term depends on homeowners’ and lenders’ reactions to this new grace period and to housing policies now being fashioned in Washington.
September 2008 August 2008 September 2007
SFV NODs 524 1,518 833
12 month change -40.0%
September foreclosures, at 822, are down 10.9% from the July level of 923, but are 172.2% above September 2007’s 302 foreclosures. Even with this foreclosure slowdown, the third quarter produced a record breaking 2,589 foreclosures, exceeding last quarter’s 2,084 foreclosures by 24.2% and far exceeding the early 1990s quarterly high of 1,818. Undoubtedly, foreclosures over the near term will be affected by new and expected Washington policies.
September 2008 August 2008 September 2007
SFV Foreclosures 822 923 302
12 month change +219.4%
LA County Foreclosures 3,644 4,149 1,220
12 month change +198.7%