SAN FERNANDO VALLEY HOUSING REPORT FOR AUGUST 2011
San Fernando Valley Economic Research Center
CALIFORNIA STATE UNIVERSITY, NORTHRIDGE
William W. Roberts, Ph. D., Director 818-677-7021
San Fernando Valley home sales show a positive sign in sales figures. After thirteen sequential months of year-over-year declines in sales, home sales in August 2011 are up slightly over sales in August 2010. Valley home sales are up 2.4 percent over a year ago. The largest year-over-year sales increases are in the West Foothills and South Foothills. With high unemployment and government budget uncertainties, the housing market will continue to remain stagnant.
August 2011 July 2011 August 2010
SFV Home Sales 1350 1211 1318
12 month Change 2.4%
The Valley’s August 2011 median price of a single-family, detached home was $365,000. This is DOWN 8.8 percent from the median price of $400,000 in August 2010. Valley median prices showed the largest year-over-year declines in Burbank and Glendale, and the Central Valley. We observed slight median price increases in the Southeast Valley and the West Foothills. Valley median home prices peaked at $660,000 in May 2007. Since then, the lowest median price level we observed was $347,500 in March 2009. Since March 2009 we observed a gradual median price increase through December 2010, followed by a slight downward trend. Inflation, albeit slow, continues to take a toll on real home values. Adjusted for inflation, median home prices are now at the level we had in March 2009.
August 2011 July 2011 August 2010
SFV Median Price $365,000 $370,000 $400,000
12 month Change - 8.8%
Notices of Default (NODs) in August 2011, at 1383, are up 12.5 percent from August 2010. NODs peaked in March 2009 at 2539 and have trended down since then. NODs continue to remain highest in Olive View and Pacoima. The increase in NODs over the low level in July 2011 is only a one month change. We will continue to monitor this to determine whether or not it should be a concern.
August 2011 July 2011 August 2010
SFV NODs 1383 681 1229
12 month Change +12.5 %
August 2011 foreclosures were at 471. This is up 13.5 percent from the August 2010 level of 415. Most Valley zip code areas show little or no increase in foreclosures. The decline in LA County foreclosures seems a more accurate reflection of this market segment. Foreclosures hit 922 in August 2008 and 919 in June 2009. Foreclosures are likely to be a significant fixture in the housing market into the second quarter of 2012.
August 2011 July 2011 August 2010
SFV Foreclosures 471 413 415
12 month Change +13.5%
LA County Foreclosures 2,257 2,059 2,385