San Fernando Valley home sales are down again from year ago levels, thirteen months in a row. This is consistent with trends throughout Southern California.   July’s units sold were 1211 units.  This is down 13.6 percent over a year ago.  Sales are down from year ago levels anywhere from a low of a 5 percent decline in the West Foothills to a 25 percent decline in the Southeast Valley.  Valley home sales, with normal seasonal fluctuations, were on an upward trend from early 2009 until June 2010.  Since then sales have slipped.  High unemployment and government budget uncertainties are continuing to put a damper on housing and financial markets.

                                                    July 2011                            June 2011                            July 2010           
SFV Home Sales                              1211                                   1415                                     1402
12 month Change                          - 13.6%

The Valley’s July 2011 median price of a single-family, detached home was $370,000.  This is DOWN 8.6 percent from the median price of $405,000 in July 2010.  Valley median prices are down from year ago levels in all seven Valley areas that we track. Valley median home prices peaked at $660,000 in May 2007.  Since then, the lowest median price level we observed was $347,500 in March 2009.  Single-family median home prices gradually rose from the bottom in March 2009 through September 2009.  Since then, median prices have stabilized around $390,000 price.  Given the low level of sales, the Valley median price may not accurately reflect housing values.  We continue to expect Valley median prices to continue fluctuating in the near $400,000 level through the remainder of this year.

                                                    July 2011                            June 2011                            July 2010     
SFV Median Price                        $370,000                              $390,000                              $405,000
12 month Change                          - 8.6%

Notices of Default (NODs) in July 2011, at 681, are DOWN 30.9 percent from July 2010.  Except for a brief hiatus period from September through November 2008, we have not observed NODs this low since early 2007.   NODs peaked in March 2009 at 2539 and have trended down since then.  NODs continue to remain highest in Olive View and Pacoima. The continuing decline in NODs is a good sign for further declines in foreclosures.
                                                    July 2011                            June 2011                            July 2010           
SFV NODs                                         681                                      821                                     985     
12 month Change                         - 30.9 %

July 2011 foreclosures were at 413.  This is up slightly (0.1 percent) from the July 2010 level of 409.  Foreclosures hit 922 in August 2008 and 919 in June 2009.  Foreclosures have trended down over the past two years.  We anticipate continuing foreclosures at around the current level until unemployment shows significant declines.  This will likely continue into March or April 2012.

                                                    July 2011                            June 2011                            July 2010
SFV Foreclosures                             413                                      530                                      409
12 month Change                           +0.1%
LA County Foreclosures                    2,059                                    2,507                                   2,059   
12 month change                       0.0% (unchanged)