SAN FERNANDO VALLEY HOUSING REPORT FOR JULY 2008
San Fernando Valley Economic Research Center
CALIFORNIA STATE UNIVERSITY, NORTHRIDGE
Dr. Daniel Blake, Director 818-677-7021
Good News! In July, San Fernando Valley home sales rose 4.7% from a year ago, marking the first increase in same-month, previous-year sales since September 2005. In addition, July home sales rose 14.4% from their June 2008 level, continuing the trend of sales increasing each month that began in January. While the credit crunch is still on and tight mortgage money is a reality, these rising sales mean that more and more mortgage lenders are issuing new mortgages and that bargain prices are pulling some buyers off the sidelines. (Sales are still slow by historical standards though—July 2008 sales are the second lowest July sales since 1988, with July 2007 being the lowest.)
July 2008 June 2008 July 2007
SFV Home Sales 1,321 1,155 1,262
12 month change +4.7%
The Valley’s median price of a single-family, detached home continued its downward drift in July, falling to $453,500. Slow sales and rising foreclosures continue to put downward pressure on housing prices—July’s median price fell 29.1% from July 2007 when the Valley’s median price came in at $639,500. Valley median housing prices peaked in May 2007 at $660,000 for a single family detached home.
SFV Median Price $453,500 $472,500 $639,500
12 month change -29.1%
After dropping somewhat in May and June, Notices of Default (NODs) edged up in July but remained below both March (1,553) and April (1,560) levels. Given the last 5 months’ numbers, NODs seem to have plateaued in the neighborhood of 1,500 per month. Notices of Default typically take about 100 days to turn into foreclosures if the mortgage delinquency is not resolved or the mortgage renegotiated (which some are). The continued high level of NODs is worrisome for foreclosure rates because mortgage credit for refinancing is still tight and because many current occupants cannot afford their current or even a renegotiated mortgage.
SFV NODs 1,509 1,472 833
12 month change +81.2%
July foreclosures, at 844, continue at a record breaking pace, after the second quarter 2008 foreclosures of 2,084 exceeded the previous record by 266, or 14.6%. (The previous quarterly high of 1,818 occurred in the second quarter of 1996.) This month’s still-climbing number of foreclosures is likely to produce another record breaking foreclosure rate this quarter given the still high number of Notices of Default.
SFV Foreclosures 844 803 263
12 month change +220.9%
LA County Foreclosures 3,874 3,676 1,073
12 month change +261.0%