SAN FERNANDO VALLEY HOUSING REPORT FOR JANUARY 2009
San Fernando Valley Economic Research Center
CALIFORNIA STATE UNIVERSITY, NORTHRIDGE
Dr. William W. Roberts, Director 818-677-7021
San Fernando Valley year-over-year home sales continue a five month sequence of substantial increases over prior year sales. Sales in January 2009 were up 43.2% over January 2008. New and existing home sales were down 24.8% in January as compared with December 2008. This is a normal seasonal pattern. The changes in home sales figures and median price reflect normal changes between December and January.
January 2009 December 2008 January 2008
SFV Home Sales 945 1,256 660
12 month change +43.2%
The Valley’s median price of a single-family, detached home continued to decline, dropping 6.1% from December 2008. January’s $352,000 median price is 33.0% below January 2008. The Valley’s median home price is down 46.7% from their May 2007 peak of $660,000. The last time the Valley saw the current $352,000 median price was in May 2003. This low median home price is dominated by sales of lower priced homes. The tight lending market, especially for jumbo loans, is limiting sales of higher priced homes.
January 2009 December 2008 January 2008
SFV Median Price $352,000 $375,000 $525,000
12 month change -33.0%
Notices of Default (NODs) in January 2009 follow the surge observed in December 2008. January 2009 NODs are up 20.2% over January 2008. Following a three month respite (September – November 2008) as lenders sorted out their response to the recent requirement that homeowners be given a 30-day notice before filing a Notice of Default, NODs are now above the levels we saw in the first eight months of 2008 (an eight month average of 1479). NODs averaged slightly over 600 per month from Sept through November.
January 2009 December 2008 January 2008
SFV NODs 1,635 1,644 1360
12 month change +20.2%
January foreclosures, at 567, are up 6.2% from last January’s 534 and are up from December’s 465 foreclosures. Foreclosures remain down from the 850 per month foreclosure average we observed in June through September. However, with the continuing high level in NODs, we may see a rise in the foreclosure rate. Decisions are starting to come out of Washington. However, the market remains uncertain regarding the impact on the housing and foreclosure markets.
January 2009 December 2008 January 2008
SFV Foreclosures 567 465 534
12 month change +6.2%
LA County Foreclosures 2,421 2,138 2,427
12 month change -0.2%