Titled "The Recovery: Is This as Good as It Gets?," the third annual forecast is presented by Cal State NorthridgeÕs San Fernando Valley Economic Research Center. CSUN economics professor Daniel Blake, director of the center, worked with colleagues and students to compile a comprehensive look at the future of the economics of the Valley and the region through 2007.

"The ValleyÕs economy is large, vibrant and expanding at an impressive pace," Blake said. "Private-sector jobs grew at a robust 1.6 percent in 2004, and will ratchet up a notch to grow at 1.7 percent this year and next as recent and projected gains in the national and California economies reinforce job creation in the Valley."

Among the forecastÕs other projections for the Valley:

Job Growth: The private sector job growth rate doubled in the Valley last year as the economic recovery hit full speed, and that pace continues through the forecast period. Job gains show no signs of abatement over the forecast period as the recovery broadens and gains momentum both inside the Valley and out.

Most of the ValleyÕs sectors participate in the continued growth, though in varying degrees. The ValleyÕs important information sector experiences turnaround, the health sector racks up steady gains and financial activity cools a bit after its recent frenetic pace. However, manufacturing continues to struggle with intense domestic and global competition.

Average Salaries and Total Earnings: The expanding economy boosts average wages and salaries, producing respectable gains in purchasing power for the average worker. The higher average salaries, combined with expanding employment rolls, will create a rising real income pool for the Valley and an attractive environment in which to develop and expand local business.

Consumer Spending: The retail climate shifts from recovery to sustained growth as residentsÕ real earnings rise steadily throughout the forecast period and translate into expanding real retail sales.

Population and Net Migration: Population growth slows significantly relative to the first part of the decade as birth rates decrease and the recent run up in home prices and rents combine with increasing local congestion to shift the ValleyÕs net in-migration to lower levels.

The density of population will rise both in terms of persons per household and households per acre, but at a somewhat slower pace. The increasing densities will continue to present new pressures and challenges for the ValleyÕs infrastructure.

Real Estate: Median home prices continue to rise, but at much slower rates of appreciation as home building rates catch up and population growth slows down.

The high price of housing encourages continued residential building at a measured pace after a banner year in 2004. Limited developable space and rising construction costs push the mix of new units strongly in favor of condominiums and apartments.