IRAN

1953-1973 à Iran is politically stable and pro-Western

Shah launches a modernization/secularization campaign à “White Revolution”

Given the turmoil elsewhere in the region, US looks to Iran as an “island of stability” in the 1970s

Nixon sees Iran as the US’s client in the Middle East. Under the Nixon Doctrine, the US equips Iran and relies on Iran to resist revolution and stabilize the region

1972-1977 Iran’s defense budget increases 700% and they buy $16.2 billion worth of US weapons

In Iran resentment of the Shah increases:

-- some view him as an American lackey

-- extraterritoriality means certain American officials are not subject to Iranian law

-- American advisors make huge salaries while Iranians live in poverty

-- some resent modernization and the inequalities that it produces

-- some resent Shah’s absolutism and lavish displays of wealth

-- SAVAK abuses the population and fuels resentment

Khomeini catches the imagination of the Iranians who resent the Americans and hate the Shah.

Intellectuals, Communists line up behind Khomeini; more moderate clerics also support him

Carter can’t figure out Khomeini – says he’s “nuts”

Too lenient, too little too late

Should have disposed of the Shah earlier or supported him more; instead equivocation

Carter admits the Shah to the US for medical treatment à Hostage Crisis

Again vacillation and uncertainty

Tough line or negotiation? Fear Khomeini will turn to the Soviets shows a misunderstanding of the situation

Conflict is between secular West and Islamic east

April 1980 à Botched rescue mission – not planned well, not executed well

Khomeini spreads the revolution

Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Lebanon all experience fallout from the revolution; each handle it differently

Egypt under Sadat tries to compromise with militant Islam; Syria doesn’t

Hama à February 1982; Assad kills 30,000 to make an example of them.

IRAN-IRAQ war

Saddam is worried à Shia minority in the South

As it happens, the Shia Iraqis hate Persians more than they hate Suni Arabs

Saddam invades in 1980 and occupies 10,000 sq miles of the country

By 1982, tide turns and Iran makes gains – pushes back Iraqis and foolishly invades Iraq

Saddam wants status quo antebellum; Khomeini on a religious crusade

Everyone else is delighted; choose sides, or arm both sides and then bleed out both nations. But this only brings short term stability.

After supporting Iraq, US arms Iran – Iran-Contra affair

Khomeini declares the Iranian dead are martyrs for Allah. Everyone sees to it that they get to Allah sooner rather than later. By the end of the war, Khomeini is sending wave after wave of soldiers – some unarmed – into the teeth of Saddam’s artillery.

Fearing instability, Reagan finally calls an end to the fun.

Not until over a million are dead

More stability in Iran; but Saddam, deeply in debt, invades Kuwait two years later.